What goes down must come up: Predictors of RSV Resurgence

Reviewed by: Dr. Michael Payne, MD; London Health Sciences Centre

Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) have been broadly utilized during the COVID-19 pandemic and have been associated with decreased circulation of seasonal respiratory viruses, including respiratory syncytial virus (RSV). However, resurgences of RSV activity have occurred, sometimes outside of typical RSV seasonal patterns. This study was a multi-country longitudinal observational analysis examining the factors associated with RSV epidemics, including school opening status, population mobility, ban on international arrivals, COVID-19 notification rate and meteorological factors. There was an increased risk for RSV resurgence associated with full re-opening of schools; however, an increase in temperature was associated with a decreased risk. There was a trend for increased risk of RSV resurgence over time since the expected typical RSV season onset, suggesting increasing susceptibility of the population along with full school re-opening may play a role in out-of-season RSV epidemics.

You Li, Xin Wang, Bingbing Cong, Shuyu Deng, Daniel R Feikin, Harish Nair. The Journal of Infectious Diseases, January 2022, jiab606, https://doi.org/10.1093/infdis/jiab606.

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